Glassnode Warns Of Major Bitcoin Selling Pressure

Nearly 4 million BTC held long-term show an estimated acquisition price between 85000 and 118000 dollars. This concentration turns any rise in bitcoin into a possible “repayment market”, where some investors might sell as soon as they recover their investment.

Four million BTC await their return to break-even

Long-term holders own about 4 million bitcoins whose on-chain cost price is between 85000 and 118000 dollars according to Glassnode. The majority of these coins were likely acquired in 2025, before BTC dropped back to around 81000 dollars.

These investors are considered long-term holders because they have held their bitcoins for at least 155 days. However, their patience does not guarantee they will continue to wait. After several months of unrealized losses, a return to their purchase price could encourage them to sell without seeking profit.

Several figures illustrate the importance of this potential supply :

• The 4 million BTC are worth about 325 billion dollars at the current price ;
• They represent nearly 20% of bitcoins already in circulation ;
• More than half of the holdings of long-term holders were acquired above the current price ;
• The 85000 dollar threshold forms the lower part of their cost price range ;
• Bitcoin has closed only five days above this level since January ;
• No streak above 85000 dollars has lasted more than three consecutive sessions.

Glassnode estimates :

If the price rises towards 85000 dollars, many of these holders could sell to recover their investment.

The analytics company does not necessarily predict a massive sale but identifies a reservoir of bitcoins potentially gradually entering the market.

This pressure would differ from capitulation. Investors would not sell out of panic during a crash but out of relief during a rebound. The market should then find enough new buyers to absorb the exits without interrupting the recovery.

The 85000 dollar threshold may overestimate the real supply

However, the cost price indicator requires an important caveat. It relies on the bitcoin price at the moment each coin was last moved on the blockchain. A transfer does not always correspond to a purchase.

Glassnode indicates that 864520 BTC, or 4.3% of the total supply, moved between 84000 and 85000 dollars. However, a large part of this volume would come from a single holder who transferred funds between their own wallets on November 22, 2025. This operation did not necessarily create hundreds of thousands of new buyers at this price.

The level still holds technical importance. The zone served as support in December 2025, before giving way on January 31. Bitcoin then lost about 20%. Since then, several recoveries have failed near this band, notably in May, September, and October 21.

The risk thus does not come solely from the 864520 BTC moved in one day. It results from the overlap of several factors: former buyers near break-even, sell orders, chart resistance, and collective anticipation of another failure.

A one-off close above 85000 dollars would remain insufficient. Glassnode estimates that a series of daily closes above this threshold would be necessary to sustainably transform this resistance into support.

Between 78000 and 85000 dollars, demand remains too weak

Below the current price, the situation appears more favorable, but buyers have lowered their orders. On Binance, only 3.4 million dollars of buys remain positioned at 80000 dollars, versus about 42 million between 78000 and 79000 dollars.

This migration shows that investors are not yet trying to push the price higher. They are waiting for a drop before returning. The average price for active investors is around 77900 dollars, while that of short-term holders is about 75800 dollars. These levels could form the next supports in case of a pullback.

On the upside, the average cost of US bitcoin ETFs is estimated at 81500 dollars. A sustained return above this threshold would put the average investor in these funds in profit. But recent inflows remain irregular and are not yet sufficient to absorb the entire supply between 85000 and 118000 dollars.

The market, however, shows no clear sign of capitulation. Net realized losses during pullbacks dropped from about 630 million dollars in August to only 27 million around October 24. Sellers are becoming less aggressive, but buyers have not yet stepped in.

The real bullish signal will therefore not be a simple breach of 85000 dollars. It will be necessary to observe if bitcoin can stay above it for several days, with volumes and ETF inflows high enough to absorb investors who finally want to exit at break-even.