Bitcoin : The market sees undervaluation, but still awaits the real signal

Bitcoin appears to be entering a zone where investors are starting to see value again. That is the central message from the Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode survey. But this is not a full green light yet. The market looks cheaper, less euphoric, and colder. And this is often where major reversals begin.

Investors see Bitcoin as too low

A large part of the market now views Bitcoin as undervalued. Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode surveyed 91 global investors between March 16 and April 7, 2026, including 29 institutions and 62 non-institutional investors. Their survey shows a clear shift in sentiment.

Around 82% of institutions and 70% of non-institutional investors now place the market in a bear market or late-stage bearish cycle. In December, far fewer held that view. The tone has changed. Investors are no longer talking about a simple dip, but about a market already well advanced in its purge.

Valuation reinforces this reading. According to the report, 75% of institutions and 61% of non-institutional investors consider BTC undervalued. Very few see it as overvalued. That detail matters. When pessimism rises but the conviction around value remains strong, the market often enters a phase of patience, not abandonment.

On-chain data confirms an accumulation zone

On-chain signals point in the same direction. Coinbase and Glassnode indicate that the supply profitability metric currently places Bitcoin in an accumulation zone. This zone appears when a significant share of the supply is no longer in high profit. In other words, speculative excess has already been washed out.

MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR tell the same story from different angles. MVRV compares market value with realized value. NUPL tracks unrealized profits or losses. SOPR looks at whether coins are sold at a profit or a loss. Taken separately, these indicators can be misleading. Together, they show a cheaper market, but still a fragile one.

The most interesting detail comes from recent holders. The report notes that the BTC supply moved over the past three months fell by 37% in the first quarter of 2026. At the same time, the share of supply that has remained unmoved for more than a year increased. This suggests that weak hands have already sold heavily. Fast speculators are leaving the table. More patient holders are staying seated.

Bitcoin dominance pauses

Bitcoin dominance adds an important nuance. The market is no longer heavily betting on a rise in that dominance. The share of institutions expecting an increase fell from 40% to 25%. Conversely, 54% now believe it will remain close to current levels.

This is not necessarily negative. It may mean that Bitcoin has already absorbed part of the defensive flow. During fear-driven phases, capital often concentrates in BTC. Then, if the market stabilizes, some of it can return to other crypto assets. Bitcoin does not lose its central role. Instead, it becomes the foundation of a market looking for its next breath.

Still, caution remains necessary. Undervaluation does not guarantee a market bottom. The market can remain cheap for longer than expected, especially if macroeconomic pressure continues. Coinbase and Glassnode also maintain a neutral view for the second quarter of 2026, due to a still unstable geopolitical environment.

A possible bottom, but not yet confirmed

The most reasonable scenario, then, is that Bitcoin is in the late stage of its bearish phase, but has not yet emerged from the fog. Sentiment data and on-chain data are converging. They point to a value zone. But they do not yet prove a lasting reversal.

For the signal to become stronger, the market will need more than a simple technical rebound. It will need steady demand, lower selling pressure, and a gradual return of liquidity. The market has already stopped shouting with euphoria. That is a good thing. But it has not yet regained a clear trend of its own.

Bitcoin is therefore in a rare in-between phase. It is no longer treated as a burning asset of pure speculation. But it has not yet returned to being the asset everyone wants to buy back without hesitation. This grey zone is uncomfortable. It is also fertile. Historically, the most patient investors like this kind of silence.