Gold And Silver Surge On Weaker US Jobs Report

Markets did not wait long to react. Faced with weaker US economic indicators, investors immediately strengthened their positions on gold, reigniting the rise of the precious metal. Behind this movement is a major shift in perspective: expectations around the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions are evolving, weakening the dollar and reshuffling the deck for all financial assets. From precious metals to cryptos, this new reading of the American economic landscape could redefine investors’ strategies in the weeks ahead.

The rise in gold prices

This Friday, July 3, precious metals recorded their strongest weekly performance in over a month, driven by a particularly disappointing US employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced macroeconomic indicators that were very far from investors’ expectations :

• Nonfarm payroll creations : only 57,000 jobs created in June, against the 110,000 initially anticipated by the consensus of economists ;
• The overall unemployment rate : a technical increase now standing at 4.2%, confirming the slowdown in private wage growth ;
• Spot gold price : a closing session settled at 4,174.21 dollars per ounce on Friday, rising to 4,187 dollars on Saturday, July 4.

The market operators’ reaction was immediate in the face of this employment deterioration, profoundly altering monetary expectations. Thus, the probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting, measured by the CME FedWatch Tool, dropped from 66% to a range between 53% and 54% in the days following the publication.

This decline in monetary tightening expectations mechanically weakened the dollar and lowered real yields, creating a highly favorable environment for gold, which generates no interest by itself. Faced with this new economic situation, analysts remain cautious but optimistic, like the strategists at OCBC Bank who now describe their short-term outlook on gold as “cautiously constructive”.

The rush on silver and the major shift in bank forecasts

Beyond gold’s rebound, it is the silver market that truly stole the spotlight, showing a spectacular 7% increase to settle above 62.4 dollars per ounce, having started from 58.3 dollars. This outperformance is explained by silver’s dual identity, sought after both as a store of value and as an indispensable industrial component.

Long-term structural demand remains driven by the massive rise of electronics, electric vehicles, and the solar panel industry, which has offset the price decline suffered in the second quarter. This asymmetrical movement caused a notable tightening of the gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold, bringing it down to 66.9 to 1 at the end of the period.

Such a rebound at the start of the month comes after a catastrophic June, when gold had fallen 10% (or -9.48% in euros, settling at 3,532.46 euros), sliding 22% below its historical high at the beginning of 2026, which was above 5,300 dollars. This plunge was caused by the restrictive tone of the new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, massive profit-taking (gold having gained +26% over a rolling year), and the signing of the framework agreement between the United States and Iran, which temporarily eased geopolitical tensions.

Faced with such volatility, major investment banks have massively revised their year-end forecasts. Goldman Sachs lowered its target from 5,400 to 4,900 dollars, UBS dropped from 5,900 to 5,500 dollars, and JPMorgan scaled back its forecast to 4,500 dollars for the fourth quarter, far from the 6,000 dollars it still anticipated on June 9. JPMorgan indeed specifies that “the risks to its forecasts were skewed to the downside,” while maintaining a bullish long-term view for 2027.

Institutional Accumulation and Geopolitical Perspectives of Precious Metals

The sustainability of this rebound relies on important structural factors, foremost of which is the insatiable appetite of institutions for tangible reserve assets. According to the latest survey from the World Gold Council, a record 45% of central banks surveyed plan to increase their holdings of yellow metal over the next twelve months, while 9 out of 10 institutions expect a global rise in gold’s share in world reserves.

The favored properties, thanks to the on-chain data collected, are its performance in times of crisis for 49% of respondents, its ability to be a long-term store of value for 48%, and the fact that it carries no default risk for 29% of them. At the same time, gold is taking root with leading private investors. A JPMorgan survey conducted among 330 Family Offices, each managing 1.2 billion dollars, reveals that 28% of these entities hold gold, an allocation that immediately doubles among those citing geopolitical risk as a major concern.

The upcoming evolution of precious metals will now depend closely on forthcoming inflation data, which will determine if this rebound establishes itself or yields to a consolidation phase. For observers like economist Peter Schiff, the weakening of national currencies versus gold shows that investors fleeing to the dollar are mistaken, concluding that they are jumping “from the frying pan directly into the fire”.

In a context where trust in central banks is eroding and diplomatic agreements remain fragile, this quest for non-confiscatable assets offers a particularly stimulating prospect for all alternative markets, including the crypto sector, despite the current market volatility.