Sell Everything: A Crypto Market Crash Is Coming

The cryptocurrency bull market is potentially coming to an end after two years of spectacular growth. Technical and cyclical indicators suggest a peak between August and October 2025. Should you sell your cryptos before it’s too late?

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Crypto Market: Indicators Revealing a Cycle End

The cryptocurrency market historically follows a four-year cycle consisting of one to two years of a bull market. Currently, we are approaching the final phase of this cycle. The monthly Bollinger Bands are the most reliable indicator to identify these cyclical transitions.

Bitcoin currently trades near $82,000, about 30% above its monthly moving average of the Bollinger Bands. This technical situation suggests limited room before a significant reversal. Meanwhile, altcoins have an even narrower margin, with only 10% deviation from their critical levels.

Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) nears overbought levels between 80 and 90. Historically, these zones mark major cyclical peaks. The shift of capital from bitcoin to ETH and other large-cap altcoins confirms this final bull run phase.

A Sharp Correction Is Brewing in the Market

Several major bearish catalysts could trigger a sharp correction. The U.S. Treasury Department is considering mandating KYC for all stablecoin-related activities. This measure, with a comment period extending until mid-October 2025, could disrupt the crypto ecosystem.

Geopolitical tensions present another systemic risk. The expiration of the trade pause between the U.S. and China in early November could reignite the tariff war. Meanwhile, an escalation between China and Taiwan remains possible during this critical period.

Leverage is the true amplifier of corrections. Institutional liquidations now affect crypto treasury companies holding billions in bitcoin and ethereum. Unlike traditional liquidations, these forced sales occur over prolonged periods and resist classical technical analyses.

Take Profits or Lose Everything

Staggered profit-taking is the optimal strategy. For bitcoin, which has realized most of its cyclical gains, a cautious approach consists of gradually securing profits. History suggests it is better to be early than late at this stage of the cycle.

Altcoins require a different approach. Ethereum and Solana are starting to catch up with bitcoin but retain significant upside potential. A partial selling strategy at key resistance levels allows capturing gains while maintaining exposure to late-cycle rallies.

Personal risk tolerance determines the optimal approach. Investors with a long-term horizon and diversified portfolio can maintain their positions. Conversely, those with limited capital or low risk tolerance should prioritize securing gains.

Ethereum Facing Institutional Challenges

Ethereum faces growing competition on multiple fronts. Blockchains like Solana attract traders favoring efficiency over decentralization. Meanwhile, fintechs and stablecoin issuers launch their own EVM-compatible blockchains, capturing value originally intended for Ethereum.

Institutional capture poses a major risk. BlackRock already holds 3.5 million ETH via its ETF, representing 55% of the Ethereum ETF market. Permitting staking for these products could concentrate validation power in the hands of traditional institutions, compromising the network’s decentralization.

This gradual centralization could transform Ethereum into a censored infrastructure. Institutional validators would prioritize regulatory compliance over censorship resistance, fundamentally altering Ethereum’s value proposition.

Towards a Bitcoin Collapse?

Historically, bitcoin has never fallen below its previous cycle peak. With a prior peak near $70,000, the probable floor would be around this level, plus or minus $10,000 depending on liquidation intensity. This reference offers a benchmark for anticipating future buying zones.

Market sentiment will be the ultimate floor indicator. When the majority of participants consider “it’s all over,” the bottom will likely be reached. This final capitulation typically coincides with the liquidation of a major overleveraged entity.

Altcoins could experience corrections of 90 to 95% from their cyclical peaks. However, solid projects with active teams and engaged communities maintain strong chances of recovery in the next bull cycle.

Signals converge towards an imminent end of the cryptocurrency cycle. Technical indicators, growing regulatory risks, and accumulation of institutional leverage create an environment favorable for a major market correction. Preparing an appropriate exit strategy thus becomes essential to position advantageously for the next cycle where bitcoin may hope to reach one million dollars.