SpaceX still loses billions but Wall Street promises it a dizzying future

Elon Musk is about to leave a brilliant mark on the marble of global markets. With SpaceX, he no longer sells just rockets, but a promise crafted like an overpriced Swiss watch. Wall Street already sees this IPO as a treasure chest open to space, AI, and orbital power.

SpaceX loses big but aims for a historic crown

SpaceX is preparing an IPO that could become the biggest stock market launch ever made. The company aims to raise $75 billion, with a valuation close to $1.75 trillion. Yet, the financial present remains less golden than the showcase.

In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue, up from $14 billion in 2024. This 33% increase did not prevent a net loss of $4.94 billion, after a profit of $791 million the previous year.

Indeed, SpaceX invests heavily in its satellites, infrastructures, and AI business. Wall Street therefore does not only look at the current income statement. It buys a trajectory, almost a custom-tailored suit made for patient investors. 

Morgan Stanley already projects $330 billion in revenue by 2030, then $3.4 trillion in 2040.

AI becomes the hidden diamond of the rocket

The core narrative changes abruptly: SpaceX is no longer described just as a space company. Banks now present its AI business as the future main driver. In 2025, this division generated $3.2 billion. Morgan Stanley already envisions $190 billion in AI revenue by 2030. Goldman Sachs pushes the figure as far as $322 billion.

This shift explains Wall Street’s almost royal enthusiasm. Rockets inspire dreams, but artificial intelligence promises empire-sized margins. In this financial jewelry, each algorithm becomes a precious stone placed on the SpaceX crown. 

Goldman sees total revenue exceeding $470 billion by 2030. Morgan Stanley remains lower, around $330 billion, but still forecasts $230 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

In other words, banks sell not so much today’s SpaceX but the theoretical SpaceX of tomorrow. This bet remains dizzying because it turns a loss-making company into a future industrial palace.

Starlink, China excluded: the other side of the orbital palace

Starlink remains a major piece of the file. The service reportedly has 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries, with more than 9,600 satellites in orbit. Goldman Sachs estimates that Starlink could generate $144 billion in revenue by 2030. Space launches would grow more modestly, from 4.1 to 8.3 billion over the same period.

Then, geopolitics enters the VIP room. According to Reuters, investors from China and Hong Kong would be excluded from the IPO. Banks cite regulatory and compliance reasons. This restriction reminds us that SpaceX is not an ordinary company. It touches satellites, data, AI, and sovereignty.

The figures that shine in the file

• SpaceX aims to raise about $75 billion in its IPO;
• The sought valuation approaches $1.75 trillion;
• SpaceX reports a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025;
• Starlink claims 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries;
• The AI business already accounts for $3.2 billion in annual revenue.

SpaceX’s IPO now seems imminent, but not everything shines like champagne in a presidential suite. Future shareholders will also have to look at the dilution risk flagged by the company. Even in orbital luxury, a promise can be costly when new shares later arrive on the market.