Theme Geopolitics

On June 8, 2025, a tanker under American and European sanctions discreetly docked in Japan, delivering Russian crude to a local refinery. This act, far from negligible, reveals a silent fracture in the Western consensus on energy. While the G7 has been trying for two years to isolate Moscow, Tokyo prioritizes its energy security. This episode, both symbolic and strategic, could subtly reshape the lines of a transforming global energy order.

Missiles in the Middle East, markets in turmoil: while the economy catches a cold, some are making a fortune off barrels... and others prefer to flee into solid gold. Guess who is pulling the strings?

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have once again shaken the crypto markets. Bitcoin sharply dropped below the psychological barrier of $105,000 after Tel Aviv claimed a series of attacks against Iran. This spectacular decline raises the question: does Bitcoin really deserve its status as a safe-haven asset?

In an economic context where every trade tension weighs on global markets, Washington has chosen firmness. On June 11, Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce, ruled out any reduction in tariffs imposed on China. An unambiguous announcement, despite an agreement announced as "concluded" by both capitals. This tariff status quo reinforces uncertainty about global supply chains and sends a clear signal: the time is not for easing, even amid diplomatic dialogue.

As Washington and Beijing reopen a diplomatic channel in London, tensions over rare earths and semiconductors threaten the global balance. In the face of the Chinese delegation, Washington demonstrates its firmness. Donald Trump, true to his style, sets the tone: "China is not easy." Behind this statement lies a reality: neither side seems willing to yield on such strategic and explosive issues.

In an environment marked by uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, the Chinese stock market demonstrates remarkable resilience. As trade discussions between the United States and China resume in London, the stock markets of Hong Kong and mainland China are witnessing a significant rebound, driven by the technology, pharmaceutical, and rare earth sectors. This dynamic could profoundly influence the financial balance in Asia in the coming months.

The new South Korean president, Lee Jae-myung, is very favorable to bitcoin. The list of pro-bitcoin countries is growing day by day.

And what if one of the largest capital transfers in modern history was already underway, away from the spotlight? In the face of rising geopolitical tensions and the fatigue of the dollar-dependent model, Asian nations, led by the BRICS, are initiating a withdrawal of about 7.5 trillion dollars in American assets. This reorientation, based on strategic choices and concrete data, challenges the foundations of Western finance and signals a silent yet decisive restructuring of the global monetary order.

Interest rates are raising concerns. François Bayrou warns that the topics of pensions and debt will need to be revisited. New generations would do well to turn to bitcoin...

Christine Lagarde dreams of a digital euro supplanting the dollar in global exchange reserves. The United States, on the other hand, is betting on bitcoin.

The BRICS Trade Ministers approved this week the "Declaration on WTO Reform and Strengthening the Multilateral Trading System." This is a document in which the group reinforces its commitment to strengthening the multilateral trading system. Additionally, the proposal includes reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This declaration also addresses issues such as data governance, sustainability, and strategies through 2030. Meanwhile, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has once again threatened the European Union (EU) with a 50% tariff starting June 1.

A phone call, a truce? Trump puts away the customs missiles. The European economy is breathing, but for how long? Ursula whispers, Donald retreats. Suspense is high until July.

We are still waiting for those happy days when it would rain dollars, to the point of no longer knowing how to spend them. However, Wall Street and local businesses seem to be struggling. The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, is sounding the alarm. The technological and trade wars initiated under Trump have not finished causing damage. While some signs of peace appear after discussions in Geneva, American companies are still suffering heavy losses. Nvidia is on the front line and is questioning the future of an economy focused on AI.

As the conflict in Ukraine bogs down, the European Union crosses a strategic threshold. On May 20th, Brussels adopted a 17th round of sanctions targeting previously less exposed entities: the Russian ghost fleet, a logistical pillar of oil evasion. This maneuver, synchronized with London, marks a turning point in the economic war waged against Moscow. By hardening its stance, the EU aims to weaken the opaque circuits financing the Russian military effort and maintain pressure on its foreign supporters.

Trump eases up (a bit) on customs tariffs: the economy breathes, analysts cough, and Beijing chuckles. 90 days of truce, or 90 days until the storm?

For a long time perceived as followers, the BRICS are now at the forefront of global growth. According to the latest forecasts from the IMF, these emerging powers will show an economic momentum in 2025 that is significantly higher than that of the United States. This quantitative shift is becoming strategic: the rise of the BRICS is no longer a trend; it is a fact. Their collective performance is redefining the balance of power and necessitating a re-examination of geo-economic equilibria.

On May 13, 2025, in Riyadh, Donald Trump signed a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia valued at 600 billion dollars. Beyond the amount, it is the nature of the alliance, encompassing defense, tech, and energy, that is striking. As Washington strengthens its foothold in the Middle East and Riyadh accelerates its post-oil transformation, this agreement redefines the power dynamics between two powers seeking global influence.

The U.S. and China agree to pause tariffs for 90 days, boosting crypto market optimism with Bitcoin and others seeing strong gains.

In a world where geopolitical fault lines are shifting rapidly, Saudi Arabia plays a delicate tune between two rival blocs. Solicited by the BRICS but still closely tied to the United States, Riyadh is biding its time, suspending its official membership despite signals of openness. While Beijing lures with its economic promises and Washington threatens with tariffs, the kingdom is preserving its options. Does this tactical ambiguity mask a pre-established strategic direction or is it preparing for a major rebalancing on the global chessboard?

As the Russo-Ukrainian war drags into its fourth year, a possible meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin in Istanbul could reshape the dynamics. For the first time in months, Kyiv is open to the idea of direct talks. Zelensky announced this Sunday, May 11, that he would await Putin on Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul. However, Ukraine sets a firm condition: no exchanges will take place without a total ceasefire, which is demanded from this Monday. This is a significant requirement in a conflict where every diplomatic gesture is closely scrutinized.

Chinese economy: prices are sinking, the people are saving, Beijing is patching things up, dishes are changing. The dragon is coughing, but still plays the mystery card to avoid being roasted.

As the conflict in Ukraine reaches a critical juncture, Kyiv and its Western allies are proposing a comprehensive, unconditional ceasefire for 30 days. Supported by Washington and major European capitals, this initiative aims to create a pathway for negotiations. However, beyond the call for a truce, one question looms: will Moscow see this as a genuine hand extended or a tactical maneuver concealing a strategic advantage for Ukraine? The answer could reshape the balance of power diplomatically.

Morgan Stanley estimates that bitcoin is now significant enough to be considered an international reserve currency.

While the Sino-American trade war seemed frozen in an endless game of retaliation, an unexpected gesture has rekindled hope: Beijing agrees to official talks with Washington. A first in months. This meeting, much more than a simple diplomatic exchange, crystallizes the deep tensions shaking global trade and the economy of the two giants.

European markets began the week without a clear direction, caught between two major uncertainties: the upcoming decisions of central banks and fears of a global trade tightening. On Monday, May 5, the main financial markets show clear caution, illustrated by slightly declining indices and low trading volumes. Indeed, investors are anxiously awaiting the next announcements from the Fed and the Bank of England, in an environment where every monetary or diplomatic signal can shift the trend.

And if a trade war could lead to a nuclear confrontation? The hypothesis seems extreme, until it is put forward by Warren Buffett. Indeed, during the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the investor warned that Donald Trump's economic policies, perceived as aggressive, could fuel global tensions with uncontrollable consequences. An unusual stance, heavy with implications, in an international context already weakened by growing rivalries.

China hoped to restore its economic reputation through conciliatory gestures towards the United States. Alas, despite a partial reduction in tariffs, the outlook remains bleak. The Chinese economy wavers, trapped by its own inertia and a frigid global environment.

As oil prices plummet and demand remains sluggish, OPEC+ surprises by announcing a massive increase in its production starting in June. Eight members of the cartel break with recent caution and reignite uncertainty in an already tense market. Behind this turnaround lies a possible geopolitical and economic turning point, between a strategy of recovery and calculated risk-taking. This decision could reshape global energy balances.