TD Cowen raises its price forecast for Strategy to 400 dollars after its 2 billion Bitcoin purchase

Is Michael Saylor alone in seeing, in his stacks of bitcoin, a close windfall rather than a shaky castle? Many observers look at this construction site with distrust, between debt, dilution, and fierce volatility. Yet, TD Cowen sees something else under the scaffolding: a financial architecture capable of transforming accumulation into value per share.

Bitcoin: TD Cowen still sees a tower at 400 dollars despite battered MSTR

Strategy has just purchased 24,869 BTC for about 2.01 billion dollars. Its reserves now reach 843,738 bitcoins, or more than 4% of the network’s maximum supply. Yet, MSTR remains around 164 to 166 dollars, far from its annual high near 457 dollars. The market sees a cracked facade; TD Cowen looks at the foundation.

The bank raises its target from 395 to 400 dollars, a theoretical potential of more than 139%. Indeed, accumulation already exceeds quarterly expectations. Analysts write:

Strategy’s treasury operations continue to exceed expectations, with faster than expected bitcoin accumulation and dilutive balance actions improving BTC per share as well as financial flexibility.

Source: TD Cowen

The true engine of Strategy hides in its financial engineering

Saylor’s machine no longer relies solely on BTC purchases. Strategy now uses preferred shares, notably STRC, as a supporting pillar. In the second quarter, the company raised about 1.95 billion dollars, with very few common shares issued. Almost all that money then flowed into bitcoin.

This setup appeals to TD Cowen because it limits visible dilution. Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares thus rises from 1.95 at the end of 2025 to 2.21 on May 17, 2026. In other words, Strategy accumulates faster than it dilutes. It’s the detail that changes the architect’s plan.

TD Cowen now forecasts nearly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone. However, the model remains demanding. It requires smooth access to financial markets, lasting crypto investor confidence, and a BTC strong enough to carry the whole structure.

Crypto: debt repurchased, balance sheet strengthened, but the crane remains under tension

Strategy has also cleaned its financial basement. The company repurchased around 1.5 billion dollars of convertible debt at about an 8% discount. This operation reduces refinancing risk and limits future dilution. TD Cowen sees it as a positive signal for shareholders and creditors.

Analysts add:

We consider this an important signal of financial flexibility. We expect continued access to financial markets to support bitcoin accumulation rather than hinder it.

Source: TD Cowen

There remains the downside of the plan. MSTR remains a leveraged bitcoin proxy, nervous like a crane under gusts. If BTC rises, Strategy amplifies the jackpot. If the crypto market corrects, the same floors could shake.

Levels etched on Strategy’s blueprints

• Strategy now holds 843,738 BTC, more than 4% of the network;
• TD Cowen sets its MSTR target at 400 dollars;
• MSTR remains about 60% below its recent annual high;
• BTC Price: 76,701 dollars at time of writing;
• BTC per 1,000 shares now reaches 2.21.

Traditional finance no longer views bitcoin as mere graffiti on a banking wall. Giants like Goldman Sachs now reevaluate their positions on crypto assets. This shift gives Strategy a less isolated, almost institutional setting to defend its colossal project.