Bitcoin Ends October Near $77K As November Begins

Bitcoin lost 7.32% in October, ending three consecutive months of gains and the traditional “Uptober” scenario. November will therefore not start with a blank page: before considering a new bullish phase, the market will first need to recover the abandoned levels, restore confidence, and absorb the consequences of the Binance hack.

A 7.9% Increase Would Only Erase October’s Drop

Bitcoin had started October below $83,500 before briefly surpassing $87,000. The momentum then reversed: the asset fell to $80,400 on October 9, then below $80,000 after the release of higher-than-expected US inflation indicators.

An attempt to recover to $85,000 was insufficient. The price hit a six-week low of $76,100 on October 30 before ending the month around $77,000. The monthly balance stands at −7.32%, after gains of 7.27% in July, 25.05% in August, and 6.37% in September.

This decline resets the initial levels to watch in November :

• An increase of about 7.9% would be necessary to offset a 7.32% loss ;
• Returning to $83,000 to $83,500 would only erase October’s decline ;
• The $80,000 level is the first area to reclaim sustainably ;
• $85,000 corresponds to the last rejected rebound before the bearish acceleration ;
• Below $76,100, the market might seek lower support.

This calculation changes the interpretation of a possible rebound. A 5% or 6% rise in November might seem significant, but it would still leave Bitcoin below its October opening level. Thus, a distinction should be made between a simple technical catch-up and a genuine bullish restart.

November Performances Are Inflated by an Exceptional Past

History shows November as a favorable month for Bitcoin, but averages give an overly optimistic picture. Since 2010, the crypto has ended ten Novembers out of sixteen in the green. The average return reaches 34.59%, whereas the median, much more representative, is limited to 10.26%.

This gap is mostly explained by the market’s early years. In November 2013, Bitcoin gained over 450%, an exceptional performance pulling the whole average up. Conversely, November 2018 ended with a drop exceeding 36%. More recently, the price gained 37.36% in November 2024, then lost 17.5% over the same period in 2025.

Seasonality thus does not provide a reliable direction. It describes what has occurred in a limited sample without integrating market evolution. Bitcoin today depends more on ETFs, monetary decisions, and institutional investors than during its early cycles.

This shift was already summarized by Bernardo Brites, co-founder of Trace Finance:

Uptober has always been a trend, not a law.

According to him, Bitcoin now mainly evolves based on ETF flows, interest rates, and the dollar, three factors that do not follow the calendar.

November Will Depend on Confidence Rather Than the Calendar

The late October drop was not only caused by profit-taking. The Binance hack, valued at $6.3 billion, shook confidence in the world’s largest exchange platform. Binance claims to have covered about 95% of the stolen assets, while net withdrawals exceeded $3.5 billion after resuming.

US Bitcoin ETFs also recorded net outflows of $643.3 million on October 30, their largest daily outflow of the month. Concurrently, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell from 70 to 36 between October 4 and 30, shifting from greed to fear.

Three confirmations will thus be necessary to make a rebound credible: stabilization of withdrawals at Binance, return of regular ETF inflows, and a reclaiming of $80,000 accompanied by spot purchases. Without these, a rise mainly driven by derivatives would remain vulnerable to new liquidations.

November has a generally favorable history, but this statistic is no longer the main driver. The real test will be the market’s ability to regain liquidity and confidence after an October that reminded us that seasonal nicknames neither protect from macroeconomic shocks nor operational failures.