Grayscale remains bullish on AAVE despite the KelpDAO shock

Aave is on its knees, it has been an undeniable fact for several weeks. The macro and micro headwinds have not spared it in recent months. Yet, Grayscale launches a bombshell that could change everything for this heavily battered crypto. The asset management giant published a report that reshapes the valuation contours of DeFi protocols.

Aave in turmoil, but Grayscale sees a financial opportunity

The April 2026 KelpDAO rsETH exploit shook the entire DeFi ecosystem with unprecedented violence. Aave was not spared by this devastating shockwave on the markets.

The protocol’s TVL collapsed abruptly, dropping from 45 billion to about 13 billion dollars. Token redemptions were suspended and confidence seemed dangerously wavering.

However, Grayscale does not give in to the general panic shaking investors. The research report emphasizes the robustness of Aave’s protocol fundamentals.

The protocol still generates estimated revenues of 60 million dollars in 2026. The operating margin remains solid, around 50% according to analysts’ calculations. 

Aave is a decentralized lending protocol that allows users to provide crypto assets to earn yields and borrow against collateral.

Source: Grayscale Research Report, Guide to Buying the Dip, June 2026.

Grayscale sees in this spectacular drop a very interesting buying opportunity. The AAVE token trades around 75 dollars on the markets currently. 

The fair value estimated by Grayscale ranges between 80 and 100 dollars. The gap is significant and the asset management giant does not hide its optimism.

Grayscale breaks the traditional codes of crypto finance

Grayscale’s report is unlike any other in today’s crypto industry. For the first time, an asset manager applies a discounted cash flow analysis to a DeFi protocol. It’s a true methodological revolution that could change a lot.

Grayscale compares Aave to traditional fintech companies such as investment banks. The valuation multiples used are 20 to 25 times the profits generated by the protocol. 

The fair market capitalization would be between 1.2 and 1.5 billion dollars today. The application of Wall Street methods to digital assets could redefine the rules of the game.

Aave is not a company — it is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO).

Source: Grayscale Research Report, Guide to Buying the Dip, June 2026. 

Despite this fundamental particularity, Grayscale believes traditional models work.

This innovative approach could attract institutional investors who were waiting for proven methods. The crypto market is entering a new era of unprecedented financial maturity.

Aave becomes the laboratory of the new tokenized finance

The outlook for Aave is abundant in the coming months. Grayscale identifies several major catalysts for the protocol’s growth. The native stablecoin GHO, the institutional Horizon market for real-world assets, and the regulatory framework of the CLARITY Act are all potential levers for Aave.

In a base scenario, the AAVE token could reach 175 dollars in a year according to Grayscale. The bullish scenario even projects it to 270 dollars if conditions are met. Tokenized assets could reach 4 trillion dollars by 2028 according to Standard Chartered.

However, risks remain significant for the Aave protocol and its investors. Token redemptions remain suspended and institutional adoption of RWAs is uncertain. But Aave has major assets: a DAO treasury of more than 360 million dollars and a dominant position in the decentralized lending sector.

Key figures from the Grayscale report

• AAVE price at the time of writing: about 73.40 dollars;
• Estimated fair value: 80 to 100 dollars;
• Base case target at 1 year: 175 dollars;
• Current TVL: 13 billion dollars;
• Estimated 2026 revenue: 60 million dollars.

Aave has become a case study for decentralized finance and its investors. The Grayscale report could mark a turning point in how Wall Street perceives revenue-generating protocols. Other institutions such as Standard Chartered also see a big future, projecting the UNI token at 100 dollars by 2030. Optimism is gaining ground in the crypto industry despite persistent uncertainties.