The Rise of ChatGPT Associated with a Significant Decline in Developer Hiring, According to a Fed Study

A preliminary study by the U.S. Federal Reserve reignites the debate about the impact of artificial intelligence on tech and the crypto ecosystem. According to economists Leland D. Crane and Paul E. Soto, the rise of ChatGPT after November 2022 coincides with a sharp slowdown in employment among developers in the United States. Over three years, this shortfall would represent about 500,000 jobs that probably would have existed without the rapid rise of large language models.

ChatGPT and a Hiring Shock Measured by the Fed

Before the arrival of ChatGPT and the rise of generative artificial intelligence, programming-related professions were growing at a steady pace. According to a study conducted at the Fed level, employment in these roles was increasing by about 5% per year, faster than the rest of the labor market.

Since then, the trend has changed. Programmer job growth has declined by approximately 50%. In IT services and software development, it has nearly stagnated. The Fed sees the situation as a clear signal: generative AI not only affects work tools but also changes hiring decisions.

Researchers have, however, isolated other factors. In 2022, tech faced rising rates, the end of the pandemic-related digital boom, and the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Despite these challenges, their model estimates that programmer employment would still have declined by about 3% annually, even after adjusting for these effects.

An Impact Concentrated on Coding Professions

The analysis does not make ChatGPT the sole cause of the slowdown. It rather shows that generative AI creates a targeted shock to coding professions. Developers therefore remain among the most exposed profiles, as automation can partially take over their tasks, notably coding, debugging, and software architecture.

Researchers compare actual employment to a scenario where the share of programmers remains stable in each sector. Over three years, the gap reaches around 500,000 jobs, without representing a direct count of eliminated positions. Some of the affected workers have likely moved to related sectors.

The timeline reinforces this interpretation. The job deficit appears mainly from mid-2024, about 18 months after ChatGPT’s launch. Companies therefore likely tested these tools before reducing or slowing their hiring.

Junior developers seem more affected than senior profiles. Another Harvard study on 62 million data processing workers confirms this direction. It observes a 9% to 10% drop in employment among beginners after the adoption of generative AI. In crypto, already fragile since 2022, this trend may increase caution among technical teams.

What Developers Can Expect in the Coming Months

The authors remain cautious. They do not speak of a lasting collapse. Programmer wages have not dropped, and job offers stabilized in 2024 before slightly increasing again.

Thus, ChatGPT could also create new needs. While AI-assisted coding reduces some costs, it may open up more projects, notably in cybersecurity, blockchain infrastructure, smart contract audits, or crypto compliance tools.

However, the main issue concerns the talent pool. If entry-level positions become scarce, beginner developers will have fewer opportunities to learn within companies. In the medium term, such a scenario could affect professional mobility and the training of future experts.

The Fed describes its work as a first step. The study remains preliminary and has not yet undergone full review. However, it lends institutional weight to a trend already visible in several tech companies.

In conclusion, ChatGPT does not signify the termination of coding professions. It rather accelerates a reorganization of work, where developers will need to combine technical skills, business understanding, and mastery of AI tools. This evolution goes beyond programming, as shown by the arrival of OpenAI tools aimed at doctors, sometimes presented as outperforming humans in certain specialized tasks. For both crypto and tech, the market may thus focus less on volume and more on profiles capable of producing quickly, cleanly, and with control.