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Bitcoin, new ATH coming soon? Analysis of May 22, 2024

Wed 22 May 2024 ▪ 5 min of reading ▪ by Family Trading Partnership
Investissement

Bitcoin recorded a performance of nearly 20% since its rebound at $60,000. Let’s analyze together the future prospects of the BTC price.

Logo Bitcoin fond rouge et bleu avec de parts et d’autres un ours rouge et un taureau bleu enragés. En haut de chacun, on peut voir la barre de pouvoir de chacun.

Situation of Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Bitcoin has shown signs of renewed interest from buyers since $57,000. It was then around $60,000 that the leading cryptocurrency confirmed this interest by surpassing, one by one, the resistance levels identified in the May 15 analysis. The $64,000 – $65,000 zone was first overcome before reaching the $67,000 – $68,000 area. Finally, this buying momentum continued until testing the resistance of $71,000. However, it seems that the buyers’ interest at this level was not sustained.

Indeed, at the time of writing this text, the Bitcoin price is stabilizing within a price range around $69,500. Thus, the cryptocurrency appears to be in a small period of indecision. Nevertheless, the latest bullish fluctuations have allowed surpassing the 50-day moving averages. Additionally, it is not surprising that Bitcoin’s momentum has resumed, as evidenced by the oscillators and the BTC price itself. Thus, all these elements seem to allow us to be more confident about the continuation of the bullish trend.

BTCUSD Daily Chart
BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, passionate cryptocurrency investor and trader. Today, he is a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content, and support around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has increased in the same direction as its price. This generally demonstrates speculators’ predominantly buying conviction. This hypothesis can be confirmed by a rebound in the funding rate, which reflects a price gap between BTCUSDT contracts and their underlying, likely due to heightened bullish pressure on them. Regarding liquidations, we can observe a capitulation of sellers through significant short position liquidations.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate
Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate

The liquidation heatmap of the past three months indicates that BTC/USDT has crossed two notable liquidation zones. First the $67,000 zone, then the $71,000 zone. Reaching this last level caused a drop in its price, indicating selling interest. Currently, the closest liquidation zone to the current BTC price is within a range of $72,000 to $74,500. Below, we can also note the zone between $65,000 and $66,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)
BTC Liquidation Heatmap (3 months)

Hypotheses for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

  • As long as Bitcoin’s price manages to stay above $65,000, we can anticipate breaking $71,000. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be within a price range around $73,000. Higher, we can highlight Bitcoin’s ATH just below $74,000. At this stage, this would represent an increase equivalent to 6%.
  • If Bitcoin’s price does not stay above $65,000, we could consider support from buyer interest at $63,000. The next level to consider, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $61,000. Lower, we can note the psychological threshold of $60,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to -14%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has recently shown significant renewed interest, surpassing several key resistance levels. Despite a current phase of indecision, investor confidence persists, supporting the anticipation of a continuation of the cryptocurrency’s trend. However, it will be crucial to closely observe price reactions at various key levels to confirm or refute current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and market “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve rapidly due to other more fundamental factors.

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Family Trading

Family Trading est une Communauté de traders a compte propre active depuis 2017 offrant Lives, contenus éducatifs et entraides autour des marchés financiers dont celui des cryptomonnaies avec à ses côtés Elie FT, investisseur et trader de passion sur le marché crypto.

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