Prediction Market

XRP is going through a difficult period, but investors in American crypto ETFs do not seem in a hurry to reduce their exposure. On October 29, the token was trading around $1.29, nearly 25% below the estimated average acquisition price of the funds. Yet, their monitored holdings decreased by only 0.26% between October 23 and 28. Six spot ETFs still held approximately 1.17 billion XRP.

Polymarket suspended its trades for about an hour after the diversion of at least $2.6 million belonging to its users. The attack did not target the blockchain itself, but a performance measurement tool integrated into the site, revealing a often overlooked weakness of non-custodial platforms.

11 billion dollars of bitcoin options expire this Friday, October 30, 2026, on Deribit. Behind the figure, it is the 79,500 $ zone that is at stake. Complete analysis!

Chainlink (LINK) loses 20.8% since early October despite a decrease in reserves on crypto platforms. Binance records 18 consecutive days of net token outflows, while reserves tracked by CryptoQuant have dropped to 124.2 million LINK. Usually considered bullish, this movement does not produce a sustained rebound. US Chainlink ETFs also show signs of slowing down.

American Bitcoin ETFs would show a rebound of 110 million dollars, while BTC remains under 80,000 dollars. The latest Binance reading placed Bitcoin around 79,730 dollars. The announced return of funds comes after two particularly difficult sessions: investors had withdrawn 773.5 million dollars from ETFs on October 22 and 23. The figure for the new rebound still awaits confirmation in the consolidated data.

Strategy bought no Bitcoin between October 19 and 25. A first pause after several weeks of accumulation. Michael Saylor's company preferred to dedicate 204.9 million dollars to repurchasing its preferred STRC shares, according to its SEC filing on October 26. Its reserve remains unchanged at 848,517 BTC, while its available cash has dropped to 242.4 million dollars, compared to 447.3 million a week earlier.

Predictive contracts linked to cryptos generated a weekly record volume of 2.7 billion dollars on Kalshi and Polymarket. Very short-term bets on the bitcoin price concentrate most of this activity, now surpassing that of all categories except sports.

JPMorgan adds Solana to its institutional crypto strategy. Since October 22, its two tokenized money market funds MONY and JLTXX have been accessible on the network to qualified American investors via Morgan Money. The products also remain available on Ethereum. The change therefore concerns less the creation of new funds than a multichain extension of already operational financial products.

Ken Griffin believes investors are "almost certainly" in an AI-related bubble. The founder of Citadel does not, however, question the technology itself. His concern is mainly about the amounts invested, the cost of GPUs, and the difficulty many companies have in turning their expenses into productivity gains. For him, a correction could eliminate many players while allowing the future giants of the sector to emerge.

Bitcoin briefly approached 84,800 dollars on Wednesday before erasing almost all of its gains. BTC was trading around 82,800 dollars on Thursday, just above the closely watched 82,500 dollar support. The reversal is not only due to concerns about artificial intelligence. The war with Iran keeps oil at high levels, while US inflation remains at 3.7% and the Fed meets on October 28. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have nevertheless attracted more than one billion dollars in three sessions.

Stablecoins mainly move when US banks are closed. A study by Coinbase and The Block Pro Research shows that 73% of the analyzed volume circulated outside US banking hours over the twelve months ending July 31. In Q3 2026, adjusted transfers reached $891 billion, or over $400 million per hour on average.

JPMorgan Asset Management incorporates bitcoin for the first time into its long-term market forecasts. In its 2027 report, the bank estimates a compound return of 10% per year over the next 10 to 15 years. This is more than the 7.5% expected for large U.S. stocks and 5.5% for gold. The counterpart is clear. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin's annual volatility at 55%.

Solana has not recorded any reported outage of its mainnet for two years. In a study published on October 16, the Fidelity Center for Applied Technology estimates that the network has made significant progress in resilience, economic security, and performance. However, the assessment remains incomplete: staking, validator hosting, and their software remain concentrated among relatively few actors.

Vitalik Buterin pushes the privacy of his AI agents very far. The co-founder of Ethereum has just unveiled a "paranoiac mode" combining Tor, private payments via zkAPI, dummy network traffic, and local rewriting of prompts. Each conversation goes through a different Tor circuit. Even the payment to the AI provider is designed to no longer directly reveal the user’s identity.

Donald Trump's Crypto Council has just lost its last known leader. Patrick Witt, its executive director, left his position after the expiration of his temporary assignment at the White House. He confirmed his departure on October 15, 2026, and announced his return to the private sector. No successor has been publicly designated, while the Clarity Act, one of the main American crypto reforms, remains blocked in the Senate.

Polymarket still has not launched its own crypto-asset. However, its founder, Shayne Coplan, mentioned this possibility again during a conference in Singapore. Without date or concrete details, his words are enough to rekindle airdrop rumors, while the company is also considering going public.

Bitcoin operates in a crypto market that has become more cautious again: CoinMarketCap's sentiment index drops to 56 out of 100 on October 13, 2026, compared to 57 for Alternative.me. Cointribune compares the two indicators and the flows of Bitcoin ETFs.

The Ledger case takes a new turn. The crypto wallet manufacturer confirms having discovered an unauthorized hardware implant in the device of a user affected by recent thefts in Southeast Asia. The theory of physical tampering before delivery is gaining strength. The suspected losses now approach 93 million dollars, but this amount has not been validated by Ledger.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced on October 9 the awarding of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to Navi Pillay. However, on Polymarket, where bettors had wagered over 32 million dollars, her name was not even among the proposed candidates.

Solana is about to complete an acceleration that began in August. The crypto network must reduce its target time between two blocks from 250 to 200 milliseconds during epoch 1053, expected on October 9. At this pace, five block production opportunities can appear each second, compared to 2.5 when Solana still operated at 400 ms. The blockchain is faster, but its overall theoretical capacity does not double.

Bitcoin brushed 80,900 dollars before bouncing back towards 82,000 dollars. At the same time, the AI sector takes another bad surprise: OpenAI communicated to its investors an annualized revenue close to 50 billion dollars for September, about 20 billion less than the previously mentioned 70 billion. The two events do not have the same origin. However, they arrive in a market where expensive oil, high rates, and gigantic expenses are starting to make investors much more demanding.

NEAR has just gained about 138% in only 30 days and now joins the top 20 of the crypto market by capitalization. The token is trading around 5.50 dollars, for a valuation close to 7.2 billion. Behind this rise, NEAR Intents now exceeds 31 billion dollars in cumulative volume, while a first American spot product dedicated to NEAR has just arrived on Wall Street.

The CEO of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, describes the hunt for x100 crypto tokens as a game of irrational exuberance (Token2049, October 7, 2026). According to the Pew Research Center, 7% of Polymarket accounts gained more than $1,000 over six weeks and 9% lost as much.

Bitcoin drops 2.7% below $84,000, while $547M of leveraged positions are liquidated in 24 hours. Oil and US rates increase pressure ahead of the Fed minutes.

Ethereum has just activated Glamsterdam on the Sepolia testnet. The crypto upgrade was launched on October 6 at 13:53 UTC, at epoch 353,024. Several important changes are now being tested on a public network: new organization of block construction, preparation for parallel processing, and revision of certain gas costs. The mainnet will still have to wait.

BitMine continues to accumulate Ethereum. The company has just purchased an additional 15,112 ETH for about 41 million dollars. Its reserve now reaches 6,016,414 ETH, valued around 16.4 billion dollars. According to its own calculation, the company controls 4.9% of the Ethereum supply and is now at 99% of its 5% target.

Strategy continues buying Bitcoin. Michael Saylor's company has just acquired an additional 334 BTC for 28.7 million dollars, bringing its total reserve to exactly 848,000 BTC. The average price of the last purchase reached 85,838.80 dollars. In total, the company has now devoted nearly 63.97 billion dollars to its immense Bitcoin treasury.

Flávio Bolsonaro outpaced incumbent president Lula in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, with 47.03% of the vote against 45.16%, sending the outcome to a runoff on October 25. Polls showed Lula winning; predictive platforms, however, had seen the senator's lead since September. A contradiction that revives the debate on their reliability, although they are blocked in Brazil.