Prediction Market

The crypto market no longer just anticipates prices, as it now speculates on war. On Polymarket, the probability of a US military intervention against Iran reaches 63%, a level that is as striking as it is worrying. Behind this figure, millions of dollars invested reflect a brutal reading of geopolitical tensions. This rise in bets raises a central question: do these markets reveal an imminent reality… or do they themselves amplify the risk they claim to measure?

Strategy did not buy any bitcoin between March 23 and 29. But Saylor's signal return on X changes everything. Analysis here!

Bitcoin is going through a rare moment of tension. The debate around BIP 110 is not only about a technical update. It concerns the very definition of bitcoin, its neutrality, and the limit of what the network should accept.

A prediction market on the fate of an American pilot missing in Iran is causing scandal. Polymarket removes it under pressure, while the United States prepares a law to ban these controversial bets. Between innovation and ethics, where to draw the line?

Europe is entering a new phase of its crypto regulation. The debate is no longer about the need to regulate the sector. It is now about a more sensitive question: who should really hold the steering wheel, Brussels or the national authorities?

At Oracle, AI is no longer just used to sell cloud. It is also used to justify a social cut of rare brutality. At the beginning of April, the group launched a wave of global layoffs announced by email at dawn, in a context of massive spending on its data centers and increasing pressure on its cash flow.

Google DeepMind has just published the first comprehensive mapping of attacks against AI agents. Complete decryption here.

American crypto is approaching a key moment. According to Coinbase, a compromise on the CLARITY Act is now close in the US Senate, but the text still has no date for committee passage or guarantee of a final vote.

Metaplanet has just crossed a milestone that very few companies can claim. The Japanese company bought 5,075 bitcoins in the first quarter of 2026, bringing its treasury to 40,177 BTC. This move pushes it to the third place among the largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasuries, behind Strategy and Twenty One Capital.

Warren Buffett just bought $17 billion in Treasury bills. What this historic signal means for bitcoin price.

Prediction markets are betting on an explosive end to 2026 for Bitcoin, but the price is still below its key levels.

The crypto market sends a brutal signal. In March 2026, more than 40% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows. This level even exceeds the peak observed during the previous bear market, which was around 38%. In other words, the current weakness is no longer just a simple air pocket. It increasingly resembles a severe market sorting.

Bitmine buys so much ETH in such a short time because the company no longer just seeks exposure to crypto. It aims to secure a dominant position in a still hesitant market. In one week, Bitmine added 71,179 ETH, about 147 million dollars, bringing its holdings to 4,732,082 ETH, equivalent to 3.92% of the total supply.

The tone is rising seriously around Polymarket and Kalshi in the United States. Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are demanding increased oversight of prediction markets, which they consider increasingly exposed to the risks of insider trading. Their position is firm: no state agent can use privileged information to take a position on the market.

Bitcoin is starting a decisive week in a nervous climate. The market is looking at the price, macroeconomics, and geopolitics at the same time. In the background, March could become the sixth consecutive month of decline for BTC, a rare sequence not seen since 2018. In…

Nvidia remains a heavyweight in the American stock market, but a clear signal has emerged from institutional portfolios. In the fourth quarter of 2025, thousands of funds reduced their exposure, even though the group retains a massive hold on the capital. Institutions liquidated more than 70 billion dollars of Nvidia shares in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to data relayed by Finbold from institutional holdings, 2,627 funds lightened their positions, for a total of 440,075,433 shares sold, or approximately 73.5 billion dollars based on a price close to 167 dollars.

Strategy stops its bitcoin purchases after 13 weeks. Simple pause or hidden signal? This turnaround already intrigues crypto investors.

At Binance, OTC activity accelerates while the crypto spot market loses momentum. This contrast does not necessarily tell a story of capital fleeing crypto. Rather, it tells of flows shifting to more discreet channels, better suited for large orders, and probably closer to institutional habits.

Elizabeth Warren puts Bitmain back under pressure in Washington. This time, the issue is neither the price of Bitcoin nor speculation. It concerns a much more sensitive point: American national security and the place of a Chinese manufacturer at the heart of the global mining infrastructure.

The ECB clearly challenges one of the founding narratives of modern crypto. In practice, several major DeFi protocols remain concentrated in the hands of few, especially when looking at actual governance rather than just marketing talk. This is the gist of the working paper published this week, which observes a strong concentration of governance tokens and voting power on Aave, MakerDAO, Ampleforth, and Uniswap.

The key signal is simple: billions of dollars in ETH are leaving exchange platforms. In this case, this movement affects both OKX and Binance, two heavyweights of the market. For crypto, this kind of massive withdrawal is not just a technical detail. It changes the structure of the supply available for sale.

Crypto advances this time on concrete ground. Monument Bank, a regulated British bank, plans to tokenize up to 250 million pounds sterling of retail deposits on Midnight, a blockchain developed within the Cardano ecosystem. This partnership places Cardano in a rarely reached area by crypto projects: that of regulated banking use, with real deposits, real regulation, and a clear commercial application.

Predictive markets are establishing themselves as a new indicator of international tensions. On Polymarket, millions of dollars are engaged to anticipate the outcome of the conflict between the United States and Iran. This activity occurs while negotiation signals are emerging between Washington and Tehran. The evolution of probabilities, coupled with the reactions of financial markets, offers an insight into investors' expectations in the face of a conflict whose outcome remains uncertain.

Robinhood does not just talk about growth. The company puts money back into its own stock. With a new 1.5 billion dollar buyback program, it sends a clear signal to the market: it believes its stock still deserves capital.

Bitcoin net outflows from exchange platforms send a fairly clear signal: a portion of the market is still buying, then withdrawing their BTC instead of leaving them available for sale. This movement alone does not announce an immediate surge. However, it shows that the current phase looks more like patient accumulation than mere speculative agitation.

Crisis at Lido: the Ethereum staking giant sees its revenues drop by 23% and its users flee. All the details in this article!

In the crypto sphere, Strategy does not slow down. Michael Saylor's company has just expanded its funding reserve to continue buying bitcoin, even in a market less comfortable than a few months ago.

The prediction market enters a less free zone. Behind the talk of crypto innovation, Kalshi and Polymarket are beginning to look a bit more like traditional financial platforms, with more control, increased surveillance, and less tolerance for gray areas.